Top 10 Technology Predictions for 2019 Revisited – Here’s my Personal Performance Appraisal
At the beginning of the year, I posted a blog outlining my top 10 tech predictions for 2019 and promised to check back later in the year to see whether my predictions were on the money. We’re now well past the mid-point in the year, so how did I do?
For the first 4 predictions, my forecast was always a fairly safe bet and I think the bet paid off.
Prediction #1. More major cybersecurity breaches
A recent Risk Based Security report shows that data breaches are 54% higher for the first six months of 2019, compared to last year. Three of those are now on the top ten list for the largest security breaches of all time. In total, over 3,800 breaches have been reported up to June 30, with over 4.1 billion records being exposed.
While it’s obvious that attacks are getting more ambitious and sophisticated, the good news is that security is improving and is now more widely recognized asa vital investment priority.
Prediction #2. Major business failures will again hit the headlines
Business failures have been called out by some as the biggest problem for the global economy in 2019. A large part of the blame for those business failures is down to the challenging economic landscape, trade wars and other onerous issues. The failure to use technology to adapt or transform has also been a factor for many, with some big names and brands becoming victims of the turmoil.
Prediction #3. More AI and ML application development and adoption
There’s no doubt that artificial intelligence and machine learning are accelerating fast. That much is obvious just by following the money and looking at the current level of investment. IDC says that $37.5 billion will be spent on AI systems in 2019, but that will be up to $98 billion by 2023. By then, 60% of US companies expect to be using artificial intelligence to deliver productivity, efficiency and customer experience improvements.
Prediction #4. The Internet of Things is set to take off
It seems like almost everyoneis coming up with new ways of using IoT and edge computing. Gartner believes that there will be 4.8 billion IoT endpoints in use this year. That’s 21.5% more than last year, with a similar increase expected next year.
The biggest use cases for IoT right now include utilities, government, building automation, security systems, automotive, manufacturing, healthcare, retail, information, and transportation.
Prediction #5. Expect to see more autonomous vehicles
I saw my first self-drive car on the roadway back in 2015, and there’s definitely more real-world testing going on in a whole host of countries this year.
However, I didn’t quite hit the mark with this prediction. Don’t expect Transport-as-a-Service (TAAS), with fully autonomous vehicles, at any point this year. It looks like we might see them sometime between 2021 and 2025. So, let’s push this forecast back by a few years.
In the meantime, there’s plenty of investment and numerous partnerships being formed to make sure they become a reality eventually.
I think my final 5 predictions have also proved to be pretty accurate (and safe) forecasts.
Prediction #6. Containers will make implementing hybrid/multi-cloud easier
Application containers have most definitely matured to the point where they are ready for mainstream adoption. 1 in 5 organizations are estimated to be using containers in production today, but that’s set to rocket up to 75% by 2022.
Why? Because containers are a prerequisite for agile development, DevOps, CI/CD, and cloud-native applications. They are also essential for delivering the portability needed in hybrid or multi-cloud solutions.
Prediction #7. Anticipate a new raft of technology-related acquisitions
76% of M&A executives in the US expect the number of deals closed this year will be up on last year, and they expect them to be bigger. The large acquisitions this year have often been done to acquire innovative new technology and expertise, or to expand revenue and market share.
Take a look at this Computerworld article for details of the 36 largest tech acquisitions so far this year.
Prediction #8. Mobile devices will become even more indispensable to our lifestyle
While mobile phone sales appear to have leveled off,for the time being, our appetite for instant access to information, service, products, and solutions shows no signs of slowing down.
Our mobile devices have become the portal to our digital world. We use them for everything from banking to entertainment, social media, business interactions and much more. None of that is likely to change with 5G, larger or foldable devices and more advanced features on the way.
Prediction #9. Blockchain is finally going to deliver some business value
Blockchain has taken a while to really catch on, but that is all changing now.
The market is forecast to hit $2.7 billion this year. That represents an impressive growth of 80% overspending in 2018. Blockchain projects in government, finance, retail, and the IoT world are driving a predicted growth rate in excess of 60% over the next five years.
Prediction #10. Open source software will continue to thrive
Open source continues to play a key role in all these other dominant technology trends. That’s why 82% of large organizations are more receptive to open source than they were 5 years ago, and 83% of hiring managers are looking for open source talent as a priority.
So, how did I do overall with my predictions?
Based on my own appraisal, I scored a creditable 9/10, and I’m feeling pretty good about that. However, I guess I wasn’t taking a huge risk. By way of full disclosure, I track all of these trends as part of my role at SUSE, and as a leading technology partner, SUSE works very closely with all its customers.
What predictions did you make for 2019 and how are they going?
Drop me a comment to let me know.
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